Brentford vs Nottingham Forest: the story of the match
30' — Brentford took the lead: 1-0. An own goal by Nikola Milenkovic. Half time: 1-0.
76' — Brentford extended the lead: 2-0. Igor Thiago scored it. Brentford won 2-0.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
BrentfordDrawNottingham Forest
Pre-match model estimate: Brentford 47%, draw 24%, Nottingham Forest 29%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Brentford win in 47% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Nottingham Forest win 29%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 58%. About 9.6 corners on average. About 4.2 yellow cards on average; a red card in 23%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Brentford kept a clean sheet in a 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest in the Premier League. It was 1-0 at half-time. The attendance at Gtech Community Stadium was 17,108.
Key moments
Brentford took the lead in the 30th minute: an own goal from Nikola Milenkovic. The officials disallowed a Nottingham Forest goal on 41 minutes. Brentford led 1-0 at the break.
Premier League
