Independiente Santa Fe vs Once Caldas: the story of the match
34' — Once Caldas took the lead: 0-1. J. Quinones scored it. Half time: 0-1.
81' — Once Caldas extended the lead: 0-2. P. Gomez scored it. Once Caldas won 0-2.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Independiente Santa FeDrawOnce Caldas
Pre-match model estimate: Independiente Santa Fe 43%, draw 26%, Once Caldas 31%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Independiente Santa Fe win in 43% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and Once Caldas win 31%. Average goals 2.7; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 53%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Once Caldas took the lead in the 34th minute: J. Quinones. It was Independiente Santa Fe 0-1 Once Caldas at half-time.
Once Caldas extended their lead to 2-0 on 81 minutes thanks to P. Gomez.
What the numbers say
Independiente Santa Fe had 6 shots (5 on target) to Once Caldas' 9 (6). Independiente Santa Fe won 9 corners, Once Caldas 6. Independiente Santa Fe produced 63 dangerous attacks to Once Caldas' 39.
What the result means
Once Caldas extend their unbeaten run to 7 matches.
Copa DIMAYOR, Knockout Stage
