Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough: the story of the match
14' — Middlesbrough took the lead: 0-1. Aidan Morris scored it. 32' — Middlesbrough extended the lead: 0-2. Will Lankshear scored it. 39' — Middlesbrough extended the lead: 0-3. An own goal by Lewis Brunt. 45' — Bolton Wanderers pulled one back: 1-3. Thelonius Bair scored it. Half time: 1-3.
73' — Middlesbrough extended the lead: 1-4. Amario Cozier-Duberry scored it. 78' — Middlesbrough extended the lead: 1-5. Will Lankshear scored it. Middlesbrough won 1-5.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Bolton WanderersDrawMiddlesbrough
Pre-match model estimate: Bolton Wanderers 20%, draw 20%, Middlesbrough 60%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Bolton Wanderers win in 20% of the simulated matches, 20% end level and Middlesbrough win 60%. Average goals 3.3; the most likely score is 1-2 (10%); both teams score in 61%. About 9.8 corners on average. About 4.1 yellow cards on average; a red card in 20%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Bolton Wanderers were beaten 5-1 by a rampant Middlesbrough. Will Lankshear scored twice for Middlesbrough. The half-time score was 1-3. 26,257 spectators were at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
How the match unfolded
Middlesbrough took the lead on 14 minutes thanks to Aidan Morris. Middlesbrough extended their lead to 2-0 in the 32nd minute: Will Lankshear. Middlesbrough extended their lead to 3-0 in the 39th minute: an own goal from Lewis Brunt. Thelonius Bair reduced the deficit for Bolton Wanderers to 1-3 after 45 minutes. Middlesbrough led 3-1 at the break.
Amario Cozier-Duberry made it 4-1 for Middlesbrough after 73 minutes, set up by Riley McGree. Just 5 minutes later (78') Middlesbrough extended their lead to 5-1, Will Lankshear on target, set up by Riley McGree.
What the numbers say
On target it was 3-11, from 4 and 19 attempts respectively. Bolton Wanderers won 2 corners, Middlesbrough 12.
What the result means
Middlesbrough extend their unbeaten run to 7 matches. It is Middlesbrough's first win against Bolton Wanderers since 2023.
Coming up
Next up for Bolton Wanderers: away at Derby County on Friday 6 November. Middlesbrough's next match is away to Watford on 7 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
English League Championship
