FC Midtjylland vs Ajax Amsterdam: the story of the match
Ajax Amsterdam started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 10' — Ajax Amsterdam took the lead: 0-1. Tolu Arokodare scored it. 28' — FC Midtjylland equalised: 1-1. Friday Etim scored it. 43' — Kjell-Arik Wätjen of FC Midtjylland was sent off. Half time: 1-1, with Ajax Amsterdam applying more of the pressure.
52' — Ajax Amsterdam went back in front: 1-2. Tolu Arokodare scored it. 59' — Ajax Amsterdam extended the lead: 1-3. Owen Wijndal scored it. 67' — Ajax Amsterdam extended the lead: 1-4. Davy Klaassen scored it. 75' — Ajax Amsterdam extended the lead: 1-5. Oscar Gloukh scored it. 82' — Ajax Amsterdam extended the lead: 1-6. Marcos Leonardo scored it. Ajax Amsterdam won 1-6.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FC MidtjyllandDrawAjax Amsterdam
Pre-match model estimate: FC Midtjylland 38%, draw 23%, Ajax Amsterdam 39%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
FC MidtjyllandAjax Amsterdam
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min3980
Last 15 min3192
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): FC Midtjylland win in 38% of the simulated matches, 23% end level and Ajax Amsterdam win 39%. Average goals 3.3; the most likely score is 1-1 (10%); both teams score in 65%. About 9.9 corners on average. About 4.3 yellow cards on average; a red card in 22%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
The early pressure came from Ajax Amsterdam, who controlled the opening 15 minutes. Ajax Amsterdam took the lead in the 10th minute: Tolu Arokodare. FC Midtjylland drew level at 1-1 on 28 minutes thanks to Friday Etim. VAR checked and confirmed the FC Midtjylland goal on 29 minutes. FC Midtjylland were a man down from the 43rd minute, when Kjell-Arik Wätjen was sent off for a second yellow card.
It was FC Midtjylland 1-1 Ajax Amsterdam at half-time; Ajax Amsterdam had the better of the pressure.
Ajax Amsterdam went 2-1 up on 52 minutes thanks to Tolu Arokodare, set up by Abdellah Ouazane. Ajax Amsterdam extended their lead to 3-1 in the 59th minute: Owen Wijndal, set up by Tolu Arokodare. Ajax Amsterdam extended their lead to 4-1 in the 67th minute: Davy Klaassen, set up by Owen Wijndal. Oscar Gloukh made it 5-1 for Ajax Amsterdam after 75 minutes. Ajax Amsterdam extended their lead to 6-1 on 82 minutes thanks to Marcos Leonardo, set up by Oscar Gloukh.
The statistics
FC Midtjylland had 6 shots (4 on target) to Ajax Amsterdam's 6 (4). Corners finished 1-8. Ajax Amsterdam produced 354 dangerous attacks to FC Midtjylland's 52.
What it means
FC Midtjylland drop from 25th to 34th on 1 point. The result lifts Ajax Amsterdam to 11th with 6 points, up from 13th. The result ends FC Midtjylland's run of 3 straight wins. Ajax Amsterdam have now won 5 in a row. It is Ajax Amsterdam's first win against FC Midtjylland since 2020.
Coming up
Next up for FC Midtjylland: home to SonderjyskE on Sunday 8 November. Ajax Amsterdam's next match is away to Twente on 8 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
