49' — Le Mans took the lead: 0-1. Lucas Buades scored it. 56' — AJ Auxerre equalised: 1-1. Cameron Archer scored it. The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
AJ AuxerreDrawLe Mans
Pre-match model estimate: AJ Auxerre 47%, draw 24%, Le Mans 29%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): AJ Auxerre win in 47% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Le Mans win 29%. Average goals 3.0; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 59%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Neither AJ Auxerre nor Le Mans could find a winner in a 1-1 draw. The half-time score was 0-0.
How the match unfolded
The first half ended 0-0.
Le Mans took the lead in the 49th minute: Lucas Buades. AJ Auxerre drew level at 1-1 on 56 minutes thanks to Cameron Archer.
Match statistics
The shot count read 7-5, 4-3 on target. Corners finished 7-1. AJ Auxerre produced 44 dangerous attacks to Le Mans' 15.
What it means
AJ Auxerre have now scored in 10 consecutive matches. Le Mans end a run of 3 straight defeats. Across 11 meetings in our records: 7 wins for AJ Auxerre, 2 wins for Le Mans and 2 draws.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
