4' — SV Elversberg took the lead: 1-0. Lasse Günther scored it. 7' — SV Elversberg extended the lead: 2-0. Lukas Petkov scored it. 28' — SV Elversberg extended the lead: 3-0. Maximilian Rohr scored it. 45' — Augsburg pulled one back: 3-1. Half time: 3-1.
76' — Augsburg pulled one back: 3-2. Michael Gregoritsch scored from the penalty spot. 89' — SV Elversberg extended the lead: 4-2. Frederik Schmahl scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 90' — Augsburg pulled one back: 4-3. Mert Kömür scored it. It came in the closing minutes. SV Elversberg won 4-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
SV ElversbergDrawAugsburg
Pre-match model estimate: SV Elversberg 46%, draw 22%, Augsburg 32%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
SV Elversberg got the better of Augsburg, winning 4-3 at Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde. It was 3-1 at half-time.
The story of the match
Lasse Günther opened the scoring for SV Elversberg after 4 minutes. Just 3 minutes later (7') SV Elversberg extended their lead to 2-0, Lukas Petkov on target, set up by Maurice Krattenmacher. SV Elversberg extended their lead to 3-0 on 28 minutes thanks to Maximilian Rohr, set up by Felix Keidel. Augsburg pulled one back to make it 3-1 on 45 minutes. SV Elversberg led 3-1 at the break.
Michael Gregoritsch reduced the deficit for Augsburg to 3-2 after 76 minutes. SV Elversberg extended their lead to 4-2 on 89 minutes thanks to Frederik Schmahl, set up by Lukas Petkov. Just 1 minutes later (90') Augsburg pulled one back to make it 4-3, Mert Kömür on target, set up by Hennes Behrens.
What the numbers say
SV Elversberg had 18 shots (8 on target) to Augsburg's 25 (8). Corners finished 4-12. Dangerous attacks: 61 for Augsburg, 44 for SV Elversberg.
What it means
The wait for a win goes on for Augsburg: 5 matches now.
Bundesliga
