One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
Preparing the simulation…
SK Sturm GrazKick-off0-0NK Celje
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): SK Sturm Graz win in 52% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and NK Celje win 23%. Average goals 2.6; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 49%. About 9.1 corners on average. About 4.3 yellow cards on average; a red card in 15%.
Goals scored per match: 1.5Goals conceded per match: 0.9
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsyes
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: NK Celje won 2-3.
Story
SK Sturm Graz vs NK Celje: the story of the match
29' — NK Celje took the lead: 0-1. Svit Seslar scored it. 40' — SK Sturm Graz equalised: 1-1. Oumar Diakité scored it. 45' — NK Celje went back in front: 1-2. Benjamin Verbic scored it. Half time: 1-2.
73' — NK Celje extended the lead: 1-3. Svit Seslar scored it. 90' — SK Sturm Graz pulled one back: 2-3. Oumar Diakité scored it. It came in the closing minutes. NK Celje won 2-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
SK Sturm GrazDrawNK Celje
Pre-match model estimate: SK Sturm Graz 52%, draw 25%, NK Celje 23%.
NK Celje beat SK Sturm Graz3-2 in the UEFA Europa League at Merkur Arena. NK Celje owed a lot to Svit Seslar, who struck twice. It was 1-2 at half-time. Svit Seslar was our player of the match, rated 9.9 by the ScoreMondo model for NK Celje. The match was played on Thursday, 5 November 2026 at Merkur Arena in Graz (matchday 3). The attendance at Merkur Arena was 12,977.
The story of the match
NK Celje took the lead in the 29th minute through Svit Seslar. SK Sturm Graz drew level at 1-1 on 40 minutes thanks to Oumar Diakité. Just 5 minutes later (45') NK Celje went 2-1 up, Benjamin Verbic on target, set up by Milot Avdyli. Half-time: 1-2, NK Celje in front.
The officials disallowed a NK Celje goal on 59 minutes. NK Celje extended their lead to 3-1 in the 73rd minute through Svit Seslar. SK Sturm Graz pulled one back to make it 2-3 in the 90th minute through Oumar Diakité.
Match statistics
On target it was 8-6, from 16 and 6 attempts respectively. Corners finished 12-2. Dangerous attacks: 67 for SK Sturm Graz, 14 for NK Celje. SK Sturm Graz committed 15 fouls to NK Celje's 13, and the offside count read 0-1.
SK Sturm Graz's yellow cards went to Oumar Diakité in the 69th minute. Booked for NK Celje: Artemijus Tutyskinas (17') and Milot Avdyli (92').
Before kick-off SK Sturm Graz were 19th on 4 points and NK Celje 29th on 1 point. SK Sturm Graz came into the match with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 matches — scoring in 5 straight games. SK Sturm Graz were held 1-1 by RZ Pellets WAC in their latest outing. Before kick-off, NK Celje's last 5 matches had brought 2 wins and 3 draws. Last time out, NK Celje beat NK Nafta 19034-0 at home. Giorgi Kruashvili was the referee, averaging 4.2 yellow cards per match across 39 matches in our records.
The bigger picture
SK Sturm Graz slip to 24th (4 points), having started the day 19th. NK Celje climb from 29th to 25th on 4 points. The wait for a win goes on for SK Sturm Graz: 4 matches now. NK Celje are now unbeaten in 6 matches.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
