BVV Barendrecht vs Waalwijk: the story of the match
Waalwijk started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. Half time: 0-0, with Waalwijk applying more of the pressure.
67' — Waalwijk took the lead: 0-1. Ryan Fage scored it. 82' — BVV Barendrecht equalised: 1-1. Aness Serghini scored it. After 61' the momentum swung to BVV Barendrecht. The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
BVV BarendrechtDrawWaalwijk
Pre-match model estimate: BVV Barendrecht 52%, draw 22%, Waalwijk 26%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
BVV BarendrechtWaalwijk
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min9822
Last 15 min8451
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): BVV Barendrecht win in 52% of the simulated matches, 22% end level and Waalwijk win 26%. Average goals 3.3; the most likely score is 1-1 (10%); both teams score in 63%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Waalwijk started on the front foot, pressing for the first 15 minutes. The first half ended 0-0, with Waalwijk the side applying more pressure.
From the 61st minute the pressure shifted towards BVV Barendrecht. Waalwijk took the lead in the 67th minute: Ryan Fage. Aness Serghini equalised for BVV Barendrecht at 1-1 after 82 minutes.
What the numbers say
On target it was 2-2, from 7 and 2 attempts respectively. Corners finished 6-5. Dangerous attacks: 135 for BVV Barendrecht, 91 for Waalwijk.
What it means
The wait for a win goes on for Waalwijk: 6 matches now.
Coming up
Waalwijk's next match is at home against Almere City FC on 30 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
KNVB Cup
