Helmond Sport vs Willem II Tilburg: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 9' — Helmond Sport took the lead: 1-0. Michel-Simon Ludwig scored it. 28' — Willem II Tilburg equalised: 1-1. Devin Haen scored it. 40' — Willem II Tilburg completed the turnaround: 1-2. Eser Gürbüz scored it. 42' — Willem II Tilburg extended the lead: 1-3. Eser Gürbüz scored it. Half time: 1-3, with Willem II Tilburg applying more of the pressure.
53' — Willem II Tilburg extended the lead: 1-4. Tonny Vilhena scored it. 72' — Helmond Sport pulled one back: 2-4. Labinot Bajrami scored it. 78' — Jaden Slory of Willem II Tilburg was sent off. 85' — Helmond Sport pulled one back: 3-4. Labinot Bajrami scored it. It came in the closing minutes. After 76' the momentum swung to Helmond Sport. Willem II Tilburg won 3-4. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Helmond SportDrawWillem II Tilburg
Pre-match model estimate: Helmond Sport 29%, draw 22%, Willem II Tilburg 49%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Helmond SportWillem II Tilburg
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min630
Last 15 min718
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Helmond Sport win in 29% of the simulated matches, 22% end level and Willem II Tilburg win 49%. Average goals 3.3; the most likely score is 1-1 (10%); both teams score in 63%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Helmond Sport took the lead on 9 minutes thanks to Michel-Simon Ludwig. Willem II Tilburg drew level at 1-1 on 28 minutes thanks to Devin Haen. Willem II Tilburg completed the turnaround at 2-1 on 40 minutes thanks to Eser Gürbüz. Willem II Tilburg extended their lead to 3-1 in the 42nd minute: Eser Gürbüz. It was Helmond Sport 1-3 Willem II Tilburg at half-time; Willem II Tilburg had the better of the pressure.
Willem II Tilburg extended their lead to 4-1 in the 53rd minute: Tonny Vilhena. Helmond Sport pulled one back to make it 2-4 on 72 minutes thanks to Labinot Bajrami. Helmond Sport took over after the 76th minute, pinning Willem II Tilburg back. Jaden Slory saw a straight red card in the 78th minute, leaving Willem II Tilburg short-handed. Helmond Sport pulled one back to make it 3-4 on 85 minutes thanks to Labinot Bajrami.
Match statistics
The shot count read 7-7, 6-5 on target.
What it means
It is now 4 straight defeats for Helmond Sport. Willem II Tilburg end a run of 11 matches without a win.
Coming up
Helmond Sport host FC Eindhoven next, on 30 October. Next up for Willem II Tilburg: away at PSV Eindhoven on Saturday 31 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
KNVB Cup
