FC Volendam vs De Graafschap: the story of the match
5' — FC Volendam took the lead: 1-0. Younes El Meftahi scored it. Half time: 1-0.
53' — De Graafschap equalised: 1-1. Donny Warmerdam scored it. 83' — De Graafschap completed the turnaround: 1-2. Joran Hardeman scored it. De Graafschap won 1-2.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FC VolendamDrawDe Graafschap
Pre-match model estimate: FC Volendam 51%, draw 20%, De Graafschap 29%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): FC Volendam win in 51% of the simulated matches, 20% end level and De Graafschap win 29%. Average goals 3.9; the most likely score is 2-1 (8%); both teams score in 72%. About 11.2 corners on average. About 3.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 15%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
De Graafschap recovered from going behind and won 2-1 against FC Volendam. 1,417 spectators were at Kras Stadion.
Key moments
FC Volendam took the lead on 5 minutes thanks to Younes El Meftahi. FC Volendam led 1-0 at the break.
De Graafschap drew level at 1-1 on 53 minutes thanks to Donny Warmerdam. De Graafschap completed the turnaround at 2-1 on 83 minutes thanks to Joran Hardeman. De Graafschap had a goal ruled out in the 86th minute.
What the numbers say
On target it was 2-1, from 3 and 1 attempts respectively. FC Volendam won 6 corners, De Graafschap 8. De Graafschap produced 96 dangerous attacks to FC Volendam's 55.
The bigger picture
FC Volendam stay 7th on 19 points. The result lifts De Graafschap to 14th with 15 points, up from 16th. FC Volendam have now scored in 5 consecutive matches. De Graafschap end a run of 3 matches without a win.
Eerste Divisie
