SC Telstar vs Almere City FC: the story of the match
Almere City FC started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. Half time: 0-0, with SC Telstar applying more of the pressure.
62' — Almere City FC took the lead: 0-1. Teun Bijleveld scored it. 80' — Almere City FC extended the lead: 0-2. Jochem Ritmeester Van De Kamp scored it. After 76' the momentum swung to Almere City FC. Almere City FC won 0-2.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
SC TelstarDrawAlmere City FC
Pre-match model estimate: SC Telstar 50%, draw 22%, Almere City FC 28%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
SC TelstarAlmere City FC
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min7131
Last 15 min6375
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): SC Telstar win in 50% of the simulated matches, 22% end level and Almere City FC win 28%. Average goals 3.4; the most likely score is 2-1 (10%); both teams score in 65%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
The early pressure came from Almere City FC, who controlled the opening 15 minutes. The first half ended 0-0, with SC Telstar the side applying more pressure.
Almere City FC took the lead on 62 minutes thanks to Teun Bijleveld. Almere City FC had a goal ruled out in the 65th minute. The officials disallowed a Almere City FC goal on 66 minutes. Almere City FC took over after the 76th minute, pinning SC Telstar back. Almere City FC extended their lead to 2-0 on 80 minutes thanks to Jochem Ritmeester Van De Kamp.
Match statistics
SC Telstar had 3 shots (1 on target) to Almere City FC's 3 (2). SC Telstar won 7 corners, Almere City FC 5. SC Telstar produced 204 dangerous attacks to Almere City FC's 102.
The bigger picture
SC Telstar have now gone 10 matches without a win. Almere City FC have now scored in 8 consecutive matches. It is Almere City FC's first win against SC Telstar since 2023.
Next fixtures
SC Telstar host Utrecht next, on 1 November. Next up for Almere City FC: away at Waalwijk on Friday 30 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
KNVB Cup
