Manchester United vs Bournemouth: the story of the match
38' — Bournemouth took the lead: 0-1. Rayan scored it. 43' — Bournemouth extended the lead: 0-2. Marcus Tavernier scored it. Half time: 0-2.
71' — Bournemouth extended the lead: 0-3. Evanilson scored it. Bournemouth won 0-3.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Manchester UnitedDrawBournemouth
Pre-match model estimate: Manchester United 40%, draw 25%, Bournemouth 35%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Manchester United win in 40% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and Bournemouth win 35%. Average goals 2.8; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 58%. About 9.2 corners on average. About 4.4 yellow cards on average; a red card in 23%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Bournemouth took the lead on 38 minutes thanks to Rayan, set up by Justin Kluivert. Marcus Tavernier made it 2-0 for Bournemouth after 43 minutes, set up by Adrien Truffert. It was Manchester United 0-2 Bournemouth at half-time.
Bournemouth had a goal ruled out in the 49th minute. Bournemouth extended their lead to 3-0 on 71 minutes thanks to Evanilson, set up by Lewis Cook.
What the numbers say
Manchester United had 13 shots (4 on target) to Bournemouth's 5 (4). Manchester United won 5 corners, Bournemouth 4.
What the result means
Manchester United drop from 13th to 16th on 7 points. The result lifts Bournemouth to 13th with 9 points, up from 15th. Manchester United have now gone 8 matches without a win. Bournemouth have now won 4 in a row.
Coming up
Manchester United visit Chelsea next, on 31 October in the Premier League. Next up for Bournemouth: home to Aston Villa on Wednesday 28 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Premier League
