Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United: the story of the match
Half time: 0-0.
47' — Newcastle United took the lead: 0-1. William Osula scored it. 58' — Newcastle United extended the lead: 0-2. Harvey Barnes scored it. Newcastle United won 0-2.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Crystal PalaceDrawNewcastle United
Pre-match model estimate: Crystal Palace 37%, draw 25%, Newcastle United 38%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Crystal Palace win in 37% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and Newcastle United win 38%. Average goals 3.0; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 59%. About 9.6 corners on average. About 4.3 yellow cards on average; a red card in 23%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Half-time: 0-0 between Crystal Palace and Newcastle United.
Newcastle United took the lead in the 47th minute: William Osula, set up by Jacob Murphy. VAR disallowed a Newcastle United goal on 53 minutes. Newcastle United extended their lead to 2-0 on 58 minutes thanks to Harvey Barnes, set up by Amar Dedic.
The statistics
The shot count read 8-8, 4-2 on target. Corners finished 7-4.
What the result means
Crystal Palace slip to 17th (7 points), having started the day 14th. Newcastle United climb from 11th to 8th on 11 points. The wait for a win goes on for Crystal Palace: 4 matches now.
Next fixtures
Next up for Crystal Palace: away at Fulham on Wednesday 28 October. Newcastle United's next match is away to Everton on 29 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Premier League
