Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: the story of the match
7' — Bournemouth took the lead: 1-0. Amine Adli scored it. Half time: 1-0.
51' — Bournemouth extended the lead: 2-0. Lewis Cook scored it. 69' — Bournemouth extended the lead: 3-0. Álvaro Rodríguez scored it. Bournemouth won 3-0.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
BournemouthDrawAston Villa
Pre-match model estimate: Bournemouth 35%, draw 21%, Aston Villa 44%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Bournemouth win in 35% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Aston Villa win 44%. Average goals 3.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (8%); both teams score in 73%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
