Line-ups not announced yetOfficial line-ups usually come about an hour before kick-off.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
IndiaKick-off0-0Pakistan
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals India 1.5 – 1.1 Pakistan. Most frequent scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Both teams score in 52% of the simulated matches.
Why this prediction?
Our model’s view: how much each factor shifts the balance between the two teams’ chances of winning.
IndiaPakistan
India: the stronger side on our resultsINstrong
India: home advantage in this competitionINstrong
India: plays in a continental competition this season; such teams have done a little better in their other matches than our model expectedINstrong
Pakistan: plays in a continental competition this season; such teams have done a little better in their other matches than our model expectedPAstrong
Also considered
India: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
Pakistan: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
India: 5 matches in the last 14 days (busy schedule)
Pakistan: 3 matches in the last 14 days (busy schedule)
India: played a continental cup match away 3 days ago (travel)
In our past matches these circumstances did not measurably improve the prediction, so they do not change the percentages.
Over the last 5 matches, India have collected 3 wins and 2 defeats. India come into this game 2 days after a 3-0 defeat to New Zealand in the International Friendlies. At home, India have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 matches, with a goal tally of 5-12. Goals have flowed in India's games: 7 of the last 10 produced at least three.
Over the last 5 matches, Pakistan have collected 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. Pakistan have found the net in 5 straight games. Pakistan's recent away record reads 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 5 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Pakistan have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
Head to head
India and Pakistan have met 4 times in our records: 4 wins for India. The last meeting, in 2026, ended in a 3-2 win for India. Pakistan have lost each of the last 4 games against India.
SAFF Championship, Group A
