41' — Atalanta took the lead: 0-1. Charles De Ketelaere scored it. Half time: 0-1.
54' — Fiorentina equalised: 1-1. Alieu Njie scored it. 61' — Fiorentina completed the turnaround: 2-1. João Mário scored it. 74' — Atalanta equalised: 2-2. Nicola Zalewski scored it. The match ended 2-2.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FiorentinaDrawAtalanta
Pre-match model estimate: Fiorentina 39%, draw 24%, Atalanta 37%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Fiorentina win in 39% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Atalanta win 37%. Average goals 3.1; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 61%. About 10.0 corners on average. About 3.5 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Fiorentina drew level at 1-1 in the 54th minute: Alieu Njie. Fiorentina completed the turnaround at 2-1 on 61 minutes thanks to João Mário, set up by Alieu Njie. Nicola Zalewski equalised for Atalanta at 2-2 after 74 minutes, set up by Charles De Ketelaere.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 16-7, 4-5 on target. Fiorentina won 8 corners, Atalanta 2. Fiorentina produced 69 dangerous attacks to Atalanta's 43.
The bigger picture
Fiorentina end a run of 3 straight defeats. Atalanta have now gone 4 matches without a win. Across 5 meetings in our records: 1 win for Fiorentina, 2 wins for Atalanta and 2 draws.
Coming up
Next up for Fiorentina: home to Juventus on Sunday 8 November. Atalanta's next match is away to AC Monza on 8 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Serie A
