Everton vs Newcastle United: the story of the match
34' — Everton took the lead: 1-0. James Garner scored it. 45' — Everton extended the lead: 2-0. Hayden Hackney scored it. Half time: 2-0.
69' — Everton extended the lead: 3-0. Thierno Barry scored it. 88' — Newcastle United pulled one back: 3-1. Dan Burn scored it. It came in the closing minutes. Everton won 3-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
EvertonDrawNewcastle United
Pre-match model estimate: Everton 44%, draw 24%, Newcastle United 32%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Everton win in 44% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Newcastle United win 32%. Average goals 3.0; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 61%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Everton beat Newcastle United3-1 in the EFL Cup at Hill Dickinson Stadium. It was 2-0 at half-time. The attendance at Hill Dickinson Stadium was 51,894.
How the match unfolded
James Garner opened the scoring for Everton after 34 minutes, set up by Hayden Hackney. Everton extended their lead to 2-0 on 45 minutes thanks to Hayden Hackney, set up by Thierno Barry. Half-time: 2-0, Everton in front.
Everton extended their lead to 3-0 on 69 minutes thanks to Thierno Barry, set up by Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall. Newcastle United pulled one back to make it 3-1 on 88 minutes thanks to Dan Burn, set up by Joe Willock.
Match statistics
On target it was 5-9, from 10 and 17 attempts respectively. Corners finished 4-10. Dangerous attacks: 56 for Newcastle United, 34 for Everton.
What the result means
A 3-game wait for victory is over for Everton.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
