Line-ups not announced yetOfficial line-ups usually come about an hour before kick-off.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
CanadaKick-off0-0Guatemala
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Model simulation (20,000 runs): expected goals Canada 2.7 – 0.5 Guatemala. Most frequent scores: 2-0 (14%), 3-0 (13%), 1-0 (10%). Both teams score in 38% of the simulated matches. About 9.5 corners on average. About 4.2 yellow cards on average; a red card in 23%.
Why this prediction?
Our model’s view: how much each factor shifts the balance between the two teams’ chances of winning.
CanadaGuatemala
Canada: the stronger side on our resultsCAstrong
Canada: home advantage in this competitionCAclear
Also considered
Canada: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
Guatemala: last match 3 days ago (short rest)
In our past matches these circumstances did not measurably improve the prediction, so they do not change the percentages.
The percentages shown also take the public pre-match consensus into account; the factors above are our model’s own. How the factors work →
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
BMO Field hosts Canada v Guatemala in the CONCACAF Nations League at 01:00 on Tuesday, 17 November 2026. C. Ramos referees; in 47 matches in our records, the official has shown an average of 4.1 yellow cards per game.
Recent form
CanadaWLWWLGuatemalaLWDWL
Canada come into it with 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 matches. Their most recent game was a 3-1 win over Guatemala for Canada. Canada's recent home record reads 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 5 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 4. Across 10 matches, Canada have scored 1.6 and let in 0.9 goals per match on average.
Guatemala have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Guatemala lost 3-1 at home to Canada in their last match. Guatemala's recent away record reads 1 draw and 4 defeats in 5 matches, scoring 2 and conceding 14. Goals have flowed in Guatemala's games: 7 of the last 10 produced at least three.
The history between them
The record between them over the last 7 matches reads 5-2-0 from Canada's point of view. The last meeting, in 2026 in the CONCACAF Nations League, ended in a 3-1 win for Canada. Canada are unbeaten in the last 7 meetings with Guatemala.
CONCACAF Nations League
