Cambridge United vs Plymouth Argyle: the story of the match
41' — Plymouth Argyle took the lead: 0-1. An own goal by Louis Appere. Half time: 0-1.
50' — Plymouth Argyle extended the lead: 0-2. Xavier Amaechi scored it. 57' — Cambridge United pulled one back: 1-2. Sullay Kaikai scored it. 74' — Plymouth Argyle extended the lead: 1-3. Aribim Pepple scored from the penalty spot. 87' — Cambridge United pulled one back: 2-3. Shayne Lavery scored it. It came in the closing minutes. Plymouth Argyle won 2-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Cambridge UnitedDrawPlymouth Argyle
Pre-match model estimate: Cambridge United 42%, draw 24%, Plymouth Argyle 34%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Cambridge United win in 42% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Plymouth Argyle win 34%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 58%. About 11.4 corners on average. About 3.8 yellow cards on average; a red card in 16%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Plymouth Argyle took the lead on 41 minutes thanks to an own goal from Louis Appere. It was Cambridge United 0-1 Plymouth Argyle at half-time.
Plymouth Argyle extended their lead to 2-0 on 50 minutes thanks to Xavier Amaechi. Cambridge United pulled one back to make it 1-2 on 57 minutes thanks to Sullay Kaikai. Plymouth Argyle extended their lead to 3-1 on 74 minutes thanks to Aribim Pepple from the penalty spot. Cambridge United pulled one back to make it 2-3 on 87 minutes thanks to Shayne Lavery.
Match statistics
Cambridge United had 8 shots (3 on target) to Plymouth Argyle's 6 (6). Cambridge United won 13 corners, Plymouth Argyle 3. Cambridge United produced 31 dangerous attacks to Plymouth Argyle's 13.
What the result means
Plymouth Argyle ended Cambridge United's unbeaten run of 10 matches. It is Plymouth Argyle's first win against Cambridge United since 2023.
Next fixtures
Cambridge United's next match is away to Leyton Orient on 31 October. Plymouth Argyle host Reading next, on 31 October in the League One.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
League One
