34' — Burnley took the lead: 1-0. Z. Amdouni scored it. Half time: 1-0.
90' — Derby County equalised: 1-1. M. Fuseini scored it. It came in the closing minutes. The match ended 1-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
BurnleyDrawDerby County
Pre-match model estimate: Burnley 54%, draw 24%, Derby County 22%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
1st Division
