Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: CA Lanus (Reserves) won 4-2.
Story
CA Lanus (Reserves) vs Atletico Rafaela (Reserves): the story of the match
1' — Atletico Rafaela (Reserves) took the lead: 0-1. 15' — CA Lanus (Reserves) equalised: 1-1. 15' — CA Lanus (Reserves) completed the turnaround: 2-1. 24' — CA Lanus (Reserves) extended the lead: 3-1. Half time: 3-1.
64' — CA Lanus (Reserves) extended the lead: 4-1. 69' — Atletico Rafaela (Reserves) pulled one back: 4-2. CA Lanus (Reserves) won 4-2.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
CA Lanus (Reserves)DrawAtletico Rafaela (Reserves)
Pre-match model estimate: CA Lanus (Reserves) 73%, draw 16%, Atletico Rafaela (Reserves) 11%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): CA Lanus (Reserves) win in 73% of the simulated matches, 16% end level and Atletico Rafaela (Reserves) win 11%. Average goals 3.3; the most likely score is 2-0 (11%); both teams score in 50%. About 9.3 corners on average. About 4.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 32%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
CA Lanus (Reserves) – Atletico Rafaela (Reserves) match report
Atletico Rafaela (Reserves) took the lead on 1 minutes. CA Lanus (Reserves) drew level at 1-1 on 15 minutes. CA Lanus (Reserves) completed the turnaround at 2-1 on 15 minutes. CA Lanus (Reserves) extended their lead to 3-1 on 24 minutes. It was CA Lanus (Reserves) 3-1 Atletico Rafaela (Reserves) at half-time.
CA Lanus (Reserves) extended their lead to 4-1 on 64 minutes. Atletico Rafaela (Reserves) pulled one back to make it 4-2 on 69 minutes.
The statistics
CA Lanus (Reserves) had 12 shots (8 on target) to Atletico Rafaela (Reserves)'s 10 (7). Corners finished 5-8.
What it means
CA Lanus (Reserves) move on to 38 points. The result takes Atletico Rafaela (Reserves) to 12 points. CA Lanus (Reserves) are now unbeaten in 8 matches. Atletico Rafaela (Reserves)'s 3-match unbeaten run is over.
Reserve League
