One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
Preparing the simulation…
Adelaide UnitedKick-off0-0Melbourne Victory
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Adelaide United win in 31% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Melbourne Victory win 45%. Average goals 3.1; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 62%. About 9.6 corners on average. About 3.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 16%.
Previous meetings and form
Head to head
2Adelaide United3Draws5Melbourne Victory
Goals: 13 - 18 · last 10 meetings
A-LeagueMelbourne Victory1 - 1Adelaide United
A-LeagueAdelaide United2 - 1Melbourne Victory
A-LeagueMelbourne Victory2 - 1Adelaide United
A-LeagueMelbourne Victory5 - 3Adelaide United
A-LeagueAdelaide United3 - 2Melbourne Victory
Australia CupMelbourne Victory1 - 0Adelaide United
Goals scored per match: 1.3Goals conceded per match: 1.2
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsyes
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: 2-2.
Story
Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory: the story of the match
45' — Adelaide United took the lead: 1-0. Brody Burkitt scored it. Half time: 1-0.
64' — Melbourne Victory equalised: 1-1. Jordi Valadon scored it. 70' — Melbourne Victory completed the turnaround: 1-2. Keegan Jelacic scored it. 86' — Philipp Ziereis of Melbourne Victory was sent off. 90' — Adelaide United equalised: 2-2. It came in the closing minutes. The match ended 2-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Adelaide UnitedDrawMelbourne Victory
Pre-match model estimate: Adelaide United 31%, draw 24%, Melbourne Victory 45%.
Adelaide United and Melbourne Victory shared the points in a 2-2 draw in the A-League. It was 1-0 at half-time. The top ScoreMondo rating of the match went to Adelaide United's Juan Muñiz: 8.7. The match was played on Sunday, 8 November 2026 at Hindmarsh Stadium in Adelaide (matchday 4).
The story of the match
The officials disallowed a Melbourne Victory goal on 10 minutes. Adelaide United took the lead on 45 minutes thanks to Brody Burkitt. It was Adelaide United 1-0 Melbourne Victory at half-time.
Jordi Valadon equalised for Melbourne Victory at 1-1 after 64 minutes. Melbourne Victory completed the turnaround at 2-1 in the 70th minute through Keegan Jelacic, set up by Clarismario Rodrigues. Melbourne Victory had a player sent off on 86 minutes: Philipp Ziereis. Just 4 minutes later (90') Adelaide United drew level at 2-2.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 7-2, 6-0 on target. Corners finished 8-2. The referee showed 7 yellow cards, 3 to Adelaide United and 4 to Melbourne Victory, and a red. Melbourne Victory's goalkeeper made 6 saves. Dangerous attacks: 134 for Adelaide United, 83 for Melbourne Victory. Adelaide United committed 9 fouls to Melbourne Victory's 10, and the offside count read 2-1.
The best ScoreMondo ratings after the player of the match went to Jordi Valadon (Melbourne Victory, 8.2), Ryan Kitto (Adelaide United, 7.9) and Clarismario Rodrigues (Melbourne Victory, 7.9). From the Adelaide United bench came Anselmo on 61 minutes, Amlani Tatu on 79 minutes, Harry Crawford on 79 minutes and Joey Garuccio on 79 minutes, among 5 changes. Melbourne Victory made 3 changes: Denis Genreau for Matthew Grimaldi (56'), Xavier Stella for Louis D'Arrigo (77') and Michael Ghossaini for Clarismario Rodrigues (77').
Before the match
Before kick-off Adelaide United were 12th on 0 points and Melbourne Victory 9th on 2 points. Adelaide United came into the match with 1 win and 4 defeats from their last 5 matches — 4 straight defeats. Lion City Sailors FC beat Adelaide United 5-0 last time out. Before kick-off, Melbourne Victory's last 5 matches had brought 2 draws and 3 defeats. Melbourne Victory lost 2-1 at home to Persib Bandung in their last match. The last meeting, in 2026 in the A-League, finished 1-1. Those 10 games produced 31 goals, an average of 3.1 per match. Daniel Elder was the referee, averaging 3.3 yellow cards per match across 36 matches in our records.
The bigger picture
Adelaide United remain 12th, now with 1 point. Melbourne Victory stay 9th on 3 points. 4 defeats in a row come to an end for Adelaide United. The wait for a win goes on for Melbourne Victory: 6 matches now. Across 11 meetings in our records: 2 wins for Adelaide United, 5 wins for Melbourne Victory and 4 draws.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
