Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory: the story of the match
45' — Adelaide United took the lead: 1-0. Brody Burkitt scored it. Half time: 1-0.
64' — Melbourne Victory equalised: 1-1. Jordi Valadon scored it. 70' — Melbourne Victory completed the turnaround: 1-2. Keegan Jelacic scored it. 86' — Philipp Ziereis of Melbourne Victory was sent off. 90' — Adelaide United equalised: 2-2. It came in the closing minutes. The match ended 2-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Adelaide UnitedDrawMelbourne Victory
Pre-match model estimate: Adelaide United 31%, draw 24%, Melbourne Victory 45%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Adelaide United win in 31% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Melbourne Victory win 45%. Average goals 3.1; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 62%. About 9.6 corners on average. About 3.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 16%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
The officials disallowed a Melbourne Victory goal on 10 minutes. Adelaide United took the lead on 45 minutes thanks to Brody Burkitt. It was Adelaide United 1-0 Melbourne Victory at half-time.
Jordi Valadon equalised for Melbourne Victory at 1-1 after 64 minutes. Melbourne Victory completed the turnaround at 2-1 in the 70th minute: Keegan Jelacic, set up by Clarismario Rodrigues. Melbourne Victory had a player sent off on 86 minutes: Philipp Ziereis. Just 4 minutes later (90') Adelaide United drew level at 2-2.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 7-2, 6-0 on target. Corners finished 8-2. Melbourne Victory's goalkeeper made 6 saves. Dangerous attacks: 134 for Adelaide United, 83 for Melbourne Victory.
The bigger picture
Adelaide United remain 12th, now with 1 point. Melbourne Victory stay 9th on 3 points. 4 defeats in a row come to an end for Adelaide United. The wait for a win goes on for Melbourne Victory: 6 matches now. Across 11 meetings in our records: 2 wins for Adelaide United, 5 wins for Melbourne Victory and 4 draws.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
