4' — AC Milan took the lead: 1-0. Christian Pulisic scored it. 10' — AC Milan extended the lead: 2-0. Adrien Rabiot scored it. 23' — Inter Milan pulled one back: 2-1. Alessandro Bastoni scored it. 44' — AC Milan extended the lead: 3-1. Diego Moreira scored it. Half time: 3-1.
AC Milan won 3-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
AC MilanDrawInter Milan
Pre-match model estimate: AC Milan 27%, draw 24%, Inter Milan 49%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): AC Milan win in 27% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Inter Milan win 49%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 57%. About 8.7 corners on average. About 3.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
AC Milan took the lead in the 4th minute: Christian Pulisic, set up by Diego Moreira. Just 6 minutes later (10') AC Milan extended their lead to 2-0, Adrien Rabiot on target, set up by Diego Moreira. Inter Milan pulled one back to make it 2-1 on 23 minutes thanks to Alessandro Bastoni. AC Milan extended their lead to 3-1 on 44 minutes thanks to Diego Moreira. Half-time: 3-1, AC Milan in front.
Match statistics
The shot count read 4-9, 3-8 on target. Corners finished 3-11. Dangerous attacks: 49 for Inter Milan, 22 for AC Milan.
The bigger picture
AC Milan remain 5th, now with 21 points. Inter Milan slip to 2nd (25 points), having started the day 1st. Inter Milan's winning streak stops at 4.
Next fixtures
AC Milan visit Genoa next, on 8 November in Serie A. Next up for Inter Milan: home to FC Como on Sunday 8 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Serie A
