FootballSeason 26/271st Division season simulation
Model estimate Omonia Nicosia — 44% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Omonia Nicosia | 18 | 53.5 | 44% |
| AEK Larnaca | 20 | 51 | 21% |
| Pafos FC | 16 | 50.2 | 18% |
| APOEL | 17 | 48.6 | 11% |
| Apollon Limassol | 16 | 46.3 | 5% |
| Aris Limassol FC | 15 | 42.6 | 1% |
| AEL Limassol | 18 | 36.2 | <1% |
| Nea Salamina Famagusta FC | 8 | 28.6 | 0% |
| Olympiakos Nicosia | 9 | 27.9 | 0% |
| Omonia 29M | 11 | 27.5 | 0% |
| Anorthosis | 6 | 25.5 | 0% |
| Omonia Aradippou | 6 | 20.9 | 0% |
| Karmiotissa Polemidion | 6 | 20.7 | 0% |
| Krasava Ypsonas | 5 | 20.1 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omonia Nicosia | 44 | 25 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||||||||
| AEK Larnaca | 21 | 24 | 20 | 17 | 12 | 5 | ||||||||
| Pafos FC | 18 | 22 | 23 | 19 | 13 | 6 | ||||||||
| APOEL | 11 | 16 | 20 | 22 | 18 | 10 | 2 | |||||||
| Apollon Limassol | 5 | 10 | 15 | 21 | 26 | 17 | 5 | |||||||
| Aris Limassol FC | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 40 | 14 | 3 | ||||||
| AEL Limassol | 1 | 5 | 16 | 47 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||||||
| Nea Salamina Famagusta FC | 2 | 10 | 23 | 21 | 18 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |||||
| Olympiakos Nicosia | 1 | 8 | 21 | 22 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||||
| Omonia 29M | 7 | 17 | 20 | 20 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 3 | ||||||
| Anorthosis | 4 | 11 | 15 | 18 | 20 | 15 | 10 | 6 | ||||||
| Omonia Aradippou | 2 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 21 | 25 | 25 | |||||||
| Karmiotissa Polemidion | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 25 | 30 | |||||||
| Krasava Ypsonas | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 25 | 33 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 119 remaining matches · data version 17t26s. 119 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.