Worthing FC vs Southend United: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 16' — Southend United took the lead: 0-1. Oliver Coker scored it. 24' — Southend United extended the lead: 0-2. Promise Omochere scored it. Half time: 0-2, with Southend United applying more of the pressure.
57' — Worthing FC pulled one back: 1-2. Dominic Johnson-Fisher scored it. 63' — Worthing FC equalised: 2-2. Cory Adjetey-Brew scored it. 66' — Southend United went back in front: 2-3. Tyreece Simpson scored it. 77' — Worthing FC equalised: 3-3. Jordan Young scored it. After 46' the momentum swung to Worthing FC. The match ended 3-3.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Worthing FCDrawSouthend United
Pre-match model estimate: Worthing FC 33%, draw 22%, Southend United 45%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Worthing FCSouthend United
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min7831
Last 15 min6651
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Worthing FC win in 33% of the simulated matches, 22% end level and Southend United win 45%. Average goals 3.5; the most likely score is 1-1 (9%); both teams score in 68%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Southend United took the lead on 16 minutes thanks to Oliver Coker. Southend United extended their lead to 2-0 in the 24th minute: Promise Omochere. It was Worthing FC 0-2 Southend United at half-time; Southend United had the better of the pressure.
From the 46th minute the pressure shifted towards Worthing FC. Worthing FC pulled one back to make it 1-2 on 57 minutes thanks to Dominic Johnson-Fisher. Worthing FC drew level at 2-2 in the 63rd minute: Cory Adjetey-Brew. Southend United went 3-2 up in the 66th minute: Tyreece Simpson. Worthing FC drew level at 3-3 in the 77th minute: Jordan Young.
The statistics
On target it was 8-8, from 9 and 11 attempts respectively. Corners finished 6-7.
The bigger picture
Worthing FC slip to 5th (28 points), having started the day 4th. Southend United remain 3rd, now with 29 points. Southend United have now scored in 12 consecutive matches.
What’s next
Next up for Worthing FC: home to Sutton United FC on Saturday 31 October. Southend United's next match is away to Wealdstone FC on 31 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
National League
