AFC Fylde vs Hartlepool United: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 3' — Hartlepool United took the lead: 0-1. William Harris scored it. Half time: 0-1, with AFC Fylde applying more of the pressure.
77' — AFC Fylde equalised: 1-1. Luke McCormick scored it. 81' — AFC Fylde completed the turnaround: 2-1. Millar Matthews-Lewis scored it. 90' — AFC Fylde extended the lead: 3-1. Jack Morris scored it. It came in the closing minutes. AFC Fylde won 3-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
AFC FyldeDrawHartlepool United
Pre-match model estimate: AFC Fylde 57%, draw 21%, Hartlepool United 22%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
AFC FyldeHartlepool United
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min1212
Last 15 min4437
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): AFC Fylde win in 57% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Hartlepool United win 22%. Average goals 3.2; the most likely score is 2-1 (10%); both teams score in 59%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Hartlepool United took the lead on 3 minutes thanks to William Harris. Hartlepool United led 1-0 at the break, although AFC Fylde had applied more pressure.
Hartlepool United had a goal ruled out in the 46th minute. AFC Fylde drew level at 1-1 in the 77th minute: Luke McCormick. Just 4 minutes later (81') AFC Fylde completed the turnaround at 2-1, Millar Matthews-Lewis on target. AFC Fylde extended their lead to 3-1 in the 90th minute: Jack Morris.
Match statistics
The shot count read 6-8, 4-3 on target. AFC Fylde won 5 corners, Hartlepool United 3. AFC Fylde produced 63 dangerous attacks to Hartlepool United's 28.
What it means
The result lifts AFC Fylde to 7th with 26 points, up from 8th. Hartlepool United drop from 19th to 20th on 15 points.
National League
