Tamworth FC vs Scunthorpe United: the story of the match
Tamworth FC started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 4' — Tamworth FC took the lead: 1-0. Morgan Roberts scored it. 14' — Tamworth FC extended the lead: 2-0. Kieren Donnelly scored it. 43' — Tamworth FC extended the lead: 3-0. Thomas McGlinchey scored it. 45' — Scunthorpe United pulled one back: 3-1. Alfie Beestin scored it. Half time: 3-1, with Tamworth FC applying more of the pressure.
90' — Tamworth FC extended the lead: 4-1. Dan Creaney scored it. It came in the closing minutes. After 46' the momentum swung to Scunthorpe United. After 91' the momentum swung to Tamworth FC. Tamworth FC won 4-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Tamworth FCDrawScunthorpe United
Pre-match model estimate: Tamworth FC 44%, draw 22%, Scunthorpe United 34%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Tamworth FCScunthorpe United
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min9131
Last 15 min6878
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Tamworth FC win in 44% of the simulated matches, 22% end level and Scunthorpe United win 34%. Average goals 3.4; the most likely score is 1-1 (9%); both teams score in 67%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
The early pressure came from Tamworth FC, who controlled the opening 15 minutes. Tamworth FC took the lead on 4 minutes thanks to Morgan Roberts. Tamworth FC extended their lead to 2-0 in the 14th minute: Kieren Donnelly. Tamworth FC extended their lead to 3-0 in the 43rd minute: Thomas McGlinchey. Scunthorpe United pulled one back to make it 3-1 in the 45th minute: Alfie Beestin.
Tamworth FC led 3-1 at the break.
Scunthorpe United took over after the 46th minute, pinning Tamworth FC back. Dan Creaney made it 4-1 for Tamworth FC after 90 minutes. From the 91st minute the pressure shifted towards Tamworth FC.
What the numbers say
On target it was 5-4, from 9 and 7 attempts respectively.
What the result means
The result lifts Tamworth FC to 17th with 17 points, up from 20th. Scunthorpe United stay 22nd on 10 points. Tamworth FC have now scored in 12 consecutive matches. Scunthorpe United have now scored in 4 consecutive matches.
Next fixtures
Next up for Tamworth FC: home to Woking FC on Saturday 31 October. Scunthorpe United's next match is away to Boston United FC on 31 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
National League
