FC Halifax Town vs Barrow AFC: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 29' — FC Halifax Town took the lead: 1-0. Ben Tollitt scored it. Half time: 1-0.
61' — FC Halifax Town extended the lead: 2-0. Ben Tollitt scored it. 74' — Barrow AFC pulled one back: 2-1. Seb Thompson scored it. 81' — Barrow AFC equalised: 2-2. Innes Cameron scored it. 89' — Raheem Conte of FC Halifax Town was sent off. 92' — Barrow AFC completed the turnaround: 2-3. Innes Cameron scored it. It came in the closing minutes. After 46' the momentum swung to Barrow AFC. Barrow AFC won 2-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FC Halifax TownDrawBarrow AFC
Pre-match model estimate: FC Halifax Town 43%, draw 25%, Barrow AFC 32%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
FC Halifax TownBarrow AFC
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min1246
Last 15 min3977
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): FC Halifax Town win in 43% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and Barrow AFC win 32%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 58%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Ben Tollitt opened the scoring for FC Halifax Town after 29 minutes. FC Halifax Town led 1-0 at the break.
The officials disallowed a FC Halifax Town goal on 46 minutes. From the 46th minute the pressure shifted towards Barrow AFC. FC Halifax Town extended their lead to 2-0 on 61 minutes thanks to Ben Tollitt. Barrow AFC pulled one back to make it 2-1 on 74 minutes thanks to Seb Thompson. Barrow AFC drew level at 2-2 in the 81st minute: Innes Cameron.
Barrow AFC had a goal ruled out in the 86th minute. FC Halifax Town were a man down from the 89th minute, when Raheem Conte was sent off for a second yellow card. Late on, in the 92nd minute, Barrow AFC completed the turnaround at 3-2 through Innes Cameron. Barrow AFC had a goal ruled out.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 10-12, 6-6 on target. Corners finished 4-7. Dangerous attacks: 59 for Barrow AFC, 42 for FC Halifax Town.
The bigger picture
FC Halifax Town remain 9th, now with 21 points. Barrow AFC move on to 27 points. FC Halifax Town's 6-match unbeaten run is over. Barrow AFC's run of 3 clean sheets is over. Barrow AFC beat FC Halifax Town for the first time since 2017.
Coming up
FC Halifax Town host Yeovil Town FC next, on 31 October in the National League. Next up for Barrow AFC: home to Eastleigh FC on Saturday 31 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
National League
