VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen: the story of the match
VfB Stuttgart started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 7' — VfB Stuttgart took the lead: 1-0. Maximilian Mittelstädt scored it. Half time: 1-0, with VfB Stuttgart applying more of the pressure.
After 61' the momentum swung to Werder Bremen. VfB Stuttgart won 1-0.
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
VfB StuttgartWerder Bremen
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min2299
Last 15 min6599
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): VfB Stuttgart win in 55% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Werder Bremen win 24%. Average goals 3.5; the most likely score is 2-1 (9%); both teams score in 66%. About 10.4 corners on average. About 4.3 yellow cards on average; a red card in 20%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
VfB Stuttgart started on the front foot, pressing for the first 15 minutes. VfB Stuttgart took the lead on 7 minutes thanks to Maximilian Mittelstädt, set up by Grischa Prömel. VfB Stuttgart led 1-0 at the break.
From the 61st minute the pressure shifted towards Werder Bremen.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 8-14, 5-7 on target. Corners finished 4-4. VfB Stuttgart's goalkeeper made 10 saves. Dangerous attacks: 258 for Werder Bremen, 189 for VfB Stuttgart.
What the result means
VfB Stuttgart climb from 11th to 8th on 12 points. Werder Bremen remain 5th, now with 15 points. Werder Bremen's run of 5 matches with a goal comes to an end.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Bundesliga
