Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
CD Cotillas beat SFC Minerva 3-1 in Tercera Federacion, Group 12.
Match decisions & VAR
34'Penalty awardedSFC MinervaDecision
82'Red cardSFC MinervaDecision
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: CD Cotillas won 1-3.
Story
SFC Minerva vs CD Cotillas: the story of the match
18' — CD Cotillas took the lead: 0-1. 35' — SFC Minerva equalised: 1-1. Half time: 1-1.
64' — CD Cotillas went back in front: 1-2. 82' — SFC Minerva had a player sent off. 85' — CD Cotillas extended the lead: 1-3. It came in the closing minutes. CD Cotillas won 1-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
SFC MinervaDrawCD Cotillas
Pre-match model estimate: SFC Minerva 44%, draw 28%, CD Cotillas 28%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): SFC Minerva win in 44% of the simulated matches, 28% end level and CD Cotillas win 28%. Average goals 2.3; the most likely score is 1-0 (14%); both teams score in 46%. About 9.2 corners on average. About 5.2 yellow cards on average; a red card in 25%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Tercera Federacion, Group 12
