Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. Half time: 0-0.
72' — Oxford United took the lead: 1-0. Gatlin O'Donkor scored it. 78' — Oxford United extended the lead: 2-0. Mo Missanga scored it. After 61' the momentum swung to Reading. After 76' the momentum swung to Oxford United. Oxford United won 2-0.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Oxford UnitedDrawReading
Pre-match model estimate: Oxford United 36%, draw 26%, Reading 38%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Oxford UnitedReading
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min6812
Last 15 min4912
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Oxford United win in 36% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and Reading win 38%. Average goals 2.8; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 58%. About 11.5 corners on average. About 3.8 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Oxford United beat Reading2-0 without conceding at The Kassam Stadium. The half-time score was 0-0. 11,470 spectators were at The Kassam Stadium.
How the match unfolded
Half-time: 0-0 between Oxford United and Reading.
Reading took over after the 61st minute, pinning Oxford United back. Oxford United took the lead on 72 minutes thanks to Gatlin O'Donkor. From the 76th minute the pressure shifted towards Oxford United. Oxford United extended their lead to 2-0 in the 78th minute: Mo Missanga.
What the numbers say
On target it was 7-4, from 9 and 6 attempts respectively. Oxford United won 5 corners, Reading 8. Oxford United produced 55 dangerous attacks to Reading's 37.
What the result means
Oxford United stay 3rd on 26 points. Reading remain 6th, now with 22 points. Oxford United extend their unbeaten run to 11 matches. Oxford United ended Reading's unbeaten run of 3 matches. It is Oxford United's first win against Reading since 1998.
Next fixtures
Oxford United host Stevenage next, on 7 November. Next up for Reading: away at Peterborough United on Saturday 7 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
