Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 7' — Walsall took the lead: 0-1. Andrew Dallas scored it. 19' — Newport County equalised: 1-1. Kion Etete scored it. 23' — Newport County completed the turnaround: 2-1. Kion Etete scored it. Half time: 2-1.
60' — Newport County extended the lead: 3-1. Michael Adu-Poku scored it. After 46' the momentum swung to Walsall. After 61' the momentum swung to Newport County. After 76' the momentum swung to Walsall. After 91' the momentum swung to Newport County. Newport County won 3-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Newport CountyDrawWalsall
Pre-match model estimate: Newport County 35%, draw 25%, Walsall 40%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Newport CountyWalsall
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min3122
Last 15 min6066
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Newport County win in 35% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and Walsall win 40%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 58%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Walsall let a lead slip and lost 3-1 to Newport County at Rodney Parade. Newport County owed a lot to Kion Etete, who struck twice. The attendance at Rodney Parade was 3,205.
The story of the match
Walsall took the lead on 7 minutes thanks to Andrew Dallas. Newport County drew level at 1-1 in the 19th minute: Kion Etete. Newport County completed the turnaround at 2-1 on 23 minutes thanks to Kion Etete. Newport County led 2-1 at the break.
From the 46th minute the pressure shifted towards Walsall. Newport County extended their lead to 3-1 in the 60th minute: Michael Adu-Poku. Newport County took over after the 61st minute, pinning Walsall back.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 7-9, 3-7 on target. Corners finished 3-4. Newport County's goalkeeper made 6 saves. Dangerous attacks: 111 for Newport County, 83 for Walsall.
What it means
Walsall have now scored in 10 consecutive matches. Newport County had not beaten Walsall in any of the previous 4 meetings we have.
Next fixtures
Newport County's next match is away to Crewe Alexandra on 14 November. Walsall host Barnet FC next, on 14 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
FA Cup
