We had a NEC Nijmegen win as the most likely outcome; the match went another way.
✗ NEC Nijmegen 47%✗ Most likely score 2-1
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsyes
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: 2-2.
Story
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: the story of the match
11' — Groningen took the lead: 0-1. Brynjólfur Willumsson scored it. 34' — Groningen extended the lead: 0-2. Brynjólfur Willumsson scored it. Half time: 0-2.
59' — NEC Nijmegen pulled one back: 1-2. Clement Bischoff scored it. 71' — NEC Nijmegen equalised: 2-2. Noé Lebreton scored it. The match ended 2-2.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
NEC NijmegenDrawGroningen
Pre-match model estimate: NEC Nijmegen 47%, draw 21%, Groningen 32%.
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): NEC Nijmegen win in 47% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Groningen win 32%. Average goals 3.6; the most likely score is 1-1 (9%); both teams score in 69%. About 9.7 corners on average. About 3.5 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
NEC Nijmegen and Groningen shared the points in a 2-2 draw in the Eredivisie. Groningen owed a lot to Brynjólfur Willumsson, who struck twice. It was 0-2 at half-time. The top ScoreMondo rating of the match went to Groningen's Brynjólfur Willumsson: 7.7.
Key moments
Groningen took the lead in the 11th minute through Brynjólfur Willumsson, set up by Marco Rente. A Groningen goal stood after a VAR check in the 20th minute. The officials disallowed a Groningen goal on 31 minutes. Groningen extended their lead to 2-0 in the 34th minute through Brynjólfur Willumsson, set up by Thom Van Bergen. VAR checked and confirmed the Groningen goal on 36 minutes.
It was NEC Nijmegen 0-2 Groningen at half-time.
A NEC Nijmegen goal stood after a VAR check in the 57th minute. NEC Nijmegen pulled one back to make it 1-2 on 59 minutes thanks to Clement Bischoff. Noé Lebreton equalised for NEC Nijmegen at 2-2 after 71 minutes.
The statistics
The shot count read 18-4, 8-2 on target. Expected goals (xG) 1.50 – 0.22: NEC Nijmegen created the better chances. Corners finished 11-2. Groningen's goalkeeper made 8 saves. Dangerous attacks: 329 for NEC Nijmegen, 114 for Groningen.
What the result means
NEC Nijmegen are now unbeaten in 6 matches. Groningen have now scored in 9 consecutive matches. Across 11 meetings in our records: 5 wins for NEC Nijmegen, 4 wins for Groningen and 2 draws.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
