AZ Alkmaar started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 3' — Groningen took the lead: 0-1. Jacob Ondrejka scored it. 10' — AZ Alkmaar equalised: 1-1. Mexx Meerdink scored it. Half time: 1-1, with AZ Alkmaar applying more of the pressure.
47' — Groningen went back in front: 1-2. Brynjólfur Willumsson scored it. 55' — Groningen extended the lead: 1-3. Thom Van Bergen scored it. 62' — AZ Alkmaar pulled one back: 2-3. Ayoub Oufkir scored it. 76' — AZ Alkmaar equalised: 3-3. Mateo Chávez scored it. 88' — Etienne Vaessen of Groningen was sent off. 90' — AZ Alkmaar completed the turnaround: 4-3. Mexx Meerdink scored from the penalty spot. It came in the closing minutes. 100' — Hans Hateboer of Groningen was sent off. AZ Alkmaar won 4-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
AZ AlkmaarDrawGroningen
Pre-match model estimate: AZ Alkmaar 67%, draw 18%, Groningen 15%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
AZ AlkmaarGroningen
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min3953
Last 15 min2225
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): AZ Alkmaar win in 67% of the simulated matches, 18% end level and Groningen win 15%. Average goals 3.4; the most likely score is 2-1 (10%); both teams score in 59%. About 9.8 corners on average. About 3.5 yellow cards on average; a red card in 15%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
AZ Alkmaar started on the front foot, pressing for the first 15 minutes. Jacob Ondrejka opened the scoring for Groningen after 3 minutes. Mexx Meerdink equalised for AZ Alkmaar at 1-1 after 10 minutes. The first half ended 1-1, with AZ Alkmaar the side applying more pressure.
Groningen went 2-1 up on 47 minutes thanks to Brynjólfur Willumsson, set up by Jacob Ondrejka. Groningen extended their lead to 3-1 on 55 minutes thanks to Thom Van Bergen. AZ Alkmaar pulled one back to make it 2-3 on 62 minutes thanks to Ayoub Oufkir. AZ Alkmaar drew level at 3-3 on 76 minutes thanks to Mateo Chávez. Etienne Vaessen saw a second yellow and then red in the 88th minute, leaving Groningen short-handed.
Mexx Meerdink turned the game around for AZ Alkmaar at 4-3 after 90 minutes. Groningen had a player sent off on 100 minutes: Hans Hateboer.
The statistics
AZ Alkmaar had 6 shots (4 on target) to Groningen's 2 (2). Corners finished 7-0. Dangerous attacks: 119 for AZ Alkmaar, 49 for Groningen.
What it means
AZ Alkmaar remain 5th, now with 23 points. Groningen slip to 9th (15 points), having started the day 8th. 3 defeats in a row come to an end for AZ Alkmaar. The wait for a win goes on for Groningen: 5 matches now.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
