Luton Town vs Doncaster Rovers: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 45' — Luton Town took the lead: 1-0. Callum Marshall scored from the penalty spot. Half time: 1-0.
52' — Luton Town extended the lead: 2-0. Jamie Donley scored it. 73' — Luton Town extended the lead: 3-0. Jamie Donley scored it. 85' — Doncaster Rovers pulled one back: 3-1. Bayley Mccann scored it. It came in the closing minutes. Luton Town won 3-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Luton TownDrawDoncaster Rovers
Pre-match model estimate: Luton Town 66%, draw 19%, Doncaster Rovers 15%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Luton TownDoncaster Rovers
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min00
Last 15 min1512
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Luton Town win in 66% of the simulated matches, 19% end level and Doncaster Rovers win 15%. Average goals 3.3; the most likely score is 2-1 (10%); both teams score in 58%. About 11.5 corners on average. About 3.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 15%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Luton Town – Doncaster Rovers match report
Updated:
Luton Town beat Doncaster Rovers3-1 in the League One at Kenilworth Road. Luton Town owed a lot to Jamie Donley, who struck twice. It was 1-0 at half-time. The attendance at Kenilworth Road was 9,707.
Key moments
Luton Town took the lead in the 45th minute: Callum Marshall from the penalty spot. Luton Town led 1-0 at the break.
Luton Town extended their lead to 2-0 in the 52nd minute: Jamie Donley. Jamie Donley made it 3-0 for Luton Town after 73 minutes. Doncaster Rovers pulled one back to make it 3-1 on 85 minutes thanks to Bayley Mccann.
Match statistics
Corners finished 5-5.
What the result means
Luton Town climb from 10th to 8th on 20 points. Doncaster Rovers slip to 18th (12 points), having started the day 17th. Luton Town have now scored in 7 consecutive matches.
Coming up
Luton Town visit Peterborough United next, on 31 October in the League One. Next up for Doncaster Rovers: away at Milton Keynes Dons on Saturday 31 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
League One
