One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
Preparing the simulation…
FC LuganoKick-off0-0FK Kauno Zalgiris
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): FC Lugano win in 82% of the simulated matches, 12% end level and FK Kauno Zalgiris win 6%. Average goals 3.3; the most likely score is 2-0 (13%); both teams score in 42%. About 9.9 corners on average. About 4.8 yellow cards on average; a red card in 22%.
Goals scored per match: 1.4Goals conceded per match: 1.9
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsyes
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: FC Lugano won 3-0.
Story
FC Lugano vs FK Kauno Zalgiris: the story of the match
12' — FC Lugano took the lead: 1-0. Yanis Cimignani scored it. 25' — FC Lugano extended the lead: 2-0. Ezgjan Alioski scored it. 32' — FC Lugano extended the lead: 3-0. Daniel Correia scored it. Half time: 3-0.
FC Lugano won 3-0.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FC LuganoDrawFK Kauno Zalgiris
Pre-match model estimate: FC Lugano 82%, draw 12%, FK Kauno Zalgiris 6%.
FK Kauno Zalgiris were beaten 3-0 by a rampant FC Lugano. The top ScoreMondo rating of the match went to FC Lugano's Daniel Correia: 7.8. The match was played on Thursday, 5 November 2026 at AIL Arena in Lugano (matchday 3). The attendance at AIL Arena was 5,429.
Key moments
FC Lugano took the lead in the 12th minute through Yanis Cimignani. FC Lugano extended their lead to 2-0 in the 25th minute through Ezgjan Alioski. Daniel Correia made it 3-0 for FC Lugano after 32 minutes, set up by Behruzjon Karimov. FC Lugano led 3-0 at the break.
The statistics
On target it was 4-1, from 5 and 4 attempts respectively. By our xG model, FC Lugano's chances were worth 1.63 goals and FK Kauno Zalgiris' 0.57. Corners finished 4-2. FC Lugano committed 8 fouls to FK Kauno Zalgiris' 14, and the offside count read 3-3.
Before kick-off FC Lugano were 2nd on 6 points and FK Kauno Zalgiris 36th on 0 points. FC Lugano came into the match with 5 wins from their last 5 matches — scoring in 10 straight games. Their most recent game was a 2-1 win over FC Basel for FC Lugano. Before kick-off, FK Kauno Zalgiris' last 5 matches had brought 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. Last time out, FK Kauno Zalgiris beat FC Hegelmann4-1 away. I. Frid was the referee, averaging 4.7 yellow cards per match across 30 matches in our records.
The bigger picture
FC Lugano climb from 2nd to 1st on 9 points. FK Kauno Zalgiris remain 36th, now with 0 points. That is 7 straight wins for FC Lugano.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
