34' — FC Lugano took the lead: 0-1. D. Moncada scored it. 37' — FC Thun 1898 equalised: 1-1. N. Zoukit scored it. Half time: 1-1.
49' — FC Lugano went back in front: 1-2. U. Bislimi scored it. 76' — FC Lugano extended the lead: 1-3. A. Ajeti scored it. 88' — FC Thun 1898 pulled one back: 2-3. R. Braschi scored from the penalty spot. It came in the closing minutes. FC Lugano won 2-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FC Thun 1898DrawFC Lugano
Pre-match model estimate: FC Thun 1898 24%, draw 20%, FC Lugano 56%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): FC Thun 1898 win in 24% of the simulated matches, 20% end level and FC Lugano win 56%. Average goals 3.7; the most likely score is 1-2 (9%); both teams score in 69%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
FC Lugano took the lead on 34 minutes thanks to D. Moncada, set up by H. Delcroix. FC Lugano had a goal ruled out in the 35th minute after a VAR review. FC Thun 1898 drew level at 1-1 in the 37th minute: N. Zoukit. It was FC Thun 1898 1-1 FC Lugano at half-time.
U. Bislimi put FC Lugano 2-1 ahead after 49 minutes, set up by Daniel Dos Santos. FC Lugano extended their lead to 3-1 in the 76th minute: A. Ajeti, set up by L. Mai. FC Thun 1898 pulled one back to make it 2-3 in the 88th minute: R. Braschi from the penalty spot.
Match statistics
The shot count read 18-15, 7-3 on target. FC Thun 1898 won 6 corners, FC Lugano 2. 7 saves came from the FC Lugano goalkeeper. FC Thun 1898 produced 219 dangerous attacks to FC Lugano's 144.
The bigger picture
FC Thun 1898 stay 9th on 10 points. FC Lugano remain 1st, now with 31 points. FC Thun 1898 have now gone 5 matches without a win. FC Lugano have now won 5 in a row.
What’s next
FC Thun 1898 visit FC Lausanne Sport next, on 1 November in the Super League. Next up for FC Lugano: home to FC Basel on Sunday 1 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Super League
