Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur: the story of the match
Half time: 0-0.
77' — Tottenham Hotspur took the lead: 0-1. An own goal by Mike Penders. 80' — Cole Palmer of Chelsea was sent off. 87' — Tottenham Hotspur extended the lead: 0-2. Mathys Tel scored it. It came in the closing minutes. Tottenham Hotspur won 0-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
ChelseaDrawTottenham Hotspur
Pre-match model estimate: Chelsea 57%, draw 21%, Tottenham Hotspur 22%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Chelsea win in 57% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Tottenham Hotspur win 22%. Average goals 3.2; the most likely score is 2-1 (10%); both teams score in 60%. About 9.6 corners on average. About 4.4 yellow cards on average; a red card in 23%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Chelsea – Tottenham Hotspur match report
Updated:
Tottenham Hotspur beat Chelsea2-0 without conceding at Stamford Bridge. It was 0-0 at half-time.
Key moments
The first half ended 0-0.
Tottenham Hotspur took the lead on 77 minutes thanks to an own goal from Mike Penders. Chelsea were a man down from the 80th minute, when Cole Palmer was sent off for a second yellow card. Late on, in the 87th minute, Tottenham Hotspur extended their lead to 2-0 through Mathys Tel.
What the numbers say
On target it was 4-4, from 7 and 12 attempts respectively. Corners finished 4-6. Dangerous attacks: 46 for Tottenham Hotspur, 31 for Chelsea.
The bigger picture
Chelsea slip to 5th (13 points), having started the day 4th. Tottenham Hotspur climb from 16th to 14th on 9 points. Tottenham Hotspur have now scored in 5 consecutive matches.
Premier League
