45' — CD Maipu took the lead: 1-0. Brian Orosco scored it. Half time: 1-0.
48' — CD Maipu extended the lead: 2-0. Juan Cruz Giacone scored it. 79' — CD Maipu extended the lead: 3-0. Lisandro Cabrera scored from the penalty spot. 90' — CA Guemes pulled one back: 3-1. Santiago Gabriel Sala scored it. It came in the closing minutes. CD Maipu won 3-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
CD MaipuDrawCA Guemes
Pre-match model estimate: CD Maipu 79%, draw 16%, CA Guemes 5%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): CD Maipu win in 79% of the simulated matches, 16% end level and CA Guemes win 5%. Average goals 2.7; the most likely score is 2-0 (18%); both teams score in 31%. About 9.3 corners on average. About 4.1 yellow cards on average; a red card in 27%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
CD Maipu got the better of CA Guemes, winning 3-1 at Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti. It was 1-0 at half-time.
How the match unfolded
CD Maipu took the lead in the 45th minute: Brian Orosco. It was CD Maipu 1-0 CA Guemes at half-time.
Just 3 minutes later (48') CD Maipu extended their lead to 2-0, Juan Cruz Giacone on target. CD Maipu extended their lead to 3-0 on 79 minutes thanks to Lisandro Cabrera from the penalty spot. CA Guemes pulled one back to make it 3-1 on 90 minutes thanks to Santiago Gabriel Sala.
The statistics
On target it was 8-1, from 9 and 3 attempts respectively. Corners finished 4-2. CA Guemes' goalkeeper made 8 saves. Dangerous attacks: 142 for CD Maipu, 74 for CA Guemes.
What the result means
CD Maipu had not beaten CA Guemes in any of the previous 6 meetings we have.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Primera B Nacional
