One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
Preparing the simulation…
CA Sarmiento JuninKick-off0-0CA Rosario Central
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): CA Sarmiento Junin win in 23% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and CA Rosario Central win 52%. Average goals 2.5; the most likely score is 0-1 (13%); both teams score in 48%. About 10.0 corners on average. About 4.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 13%.
Previous meetings and form
Head to head
0CA Sarmiento Junin0Draws4CA Rosario Central
Goals: 3 - 8 · last 4 meetings
Liga ProfesionalCA Rosario Central2 - 1CA Sarmiento Junin
Liga Profesional ArgentinaCA Sarmiento Junin0 - 1CA Rosario Central
Liga Profesional ArgentinaCA Rosario Central1 - 0CA Sarmiento Junin
Liga Profesional ArgentinaCA Rosario Central4 - 2CA Sarmiento Junin
Goals scored per match: 2.1Goals conceded per match: 0.6
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsyes
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: CA Rosario Central won 1-2.
Story
CA Sarmiento Junin vs CA Rosario Central: the story of the match
5' — CA Sarmiento Junin took the lead: 1-0. 29' — CA Rosario Central equalised: 1-1. Half time: 1-1.
69' — CA Sarmiento Junin had a player sent off. 90' — CA Rosario Central completed the turnaround: 1-2. It came in the closing minutes. 90' — CA Sarmiento Junin had a player sent off. CA Rosario Central won 1-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
CA Sarmiento JuninDrawCA Rosario Central
Pre-match model estimate: CA Sarmiento Junin 23%, draw 25%, CA Rosario Central 52%.
CA Sarmiento Junin let a lead slip and lost 2-1 to CA Rosario Central at Eva Perón. G. Ávila was our player of the match, rated 7.1 by the ScoreMondo model for CA Rosario Central. Saturday 31 October, Eva Perón (Junin): CA Sarmiento Junin against CA Rosario Central on matchday 15, kick-off 00:15.
Key moments
CA Sarmiento Junin took the lead on 5 minutes. CA Rosario Central drew level at 1-1 on 29 minutes. It was CA Sarmiento Junin 1-1 CA Rosario Central at half-time.
VAR awarded CA Rosario Central a penalty in the 67th minute. CA Sarmiento Junin were a man down from the 69th minute. Late on, in the 90th minute, CA Rosario Central completed the turnaround at 2-1. CA Sarmiento Junin had a player sent off on 90 minutes.
The statistics
On target it was 2-6, from 2 and 9 attempts respectively. By our xG model, CA Sarmiento Junin's chances were worth 0.89 goals and CA Rosario Central's 2.13. CA Sarmiento Junin won 2 corners, CA Rosario Central 13. Cards: 5-2 in yellows, plus 2 red cards for CA Sarmiento Junin. CA Rosario Central produced 80 dangerous attacks to CA Sarmiento Junin's 48. Fouls: 12 by CA Sarmiento Junin, 8 by CA Rosario Central; offsides 1-1.
Before kick-off, CA Sarmiento Junin's last 5 matches had brought 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats. CA Sarmiento Junin lost 2-0 away to Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata in their last match. CA Rosario Central came into the match with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 matches — scoring in 10 straight games. Their most recent game was a 2-0 win over CA Huracan for CA Rosario Central. CA Sarmiento Junin and CA Rosario Central have met 4 times in our records: 4 wins for CA Rosario Central. When they last met, on 20 April 2026, CA Rosario Central won 2-1. There have been 11 goals in the 4 meetings, 2.8 a game. Referee Andres Merlos showed 7 yellow cards and 2 reds; the average in our records is 4.6 yellows per game over 80 matches.
The bigger picture
CA Sarmiento Junin have now gone 4 matches without a win. CA Rosario Central have now won 4 in a row.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
