61' — Atletico MG took the lead: 1-0. Reinier scored it. 63' — Atletico MG extended the lead: 2-0. Cuello scored it. 81' — Atletico MG extended the lead: 3-0. Vitao scored it. 90' — Fluminense pulled one back: 3-1. R. Castillo scored it. It came in the closing minutes. Atletico MG won 3-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Atletico MGDrawFluminense
Pre-match model estimate: Atletico MG 42%, draw 29%, Fluminense 29%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Atletico MG took the lead in the 61st minute: Reinier, set up by Cuello. Cuello made it 2-0 for Atletico MG after 63 minutes. Atletico MG extended their lead to 3-0 on 81 minutes thanks to Vitao, set up by M. Cassierra. Fluminense pulled one back to make it 3-1 in the 90th minute: R. Castillo, set up by K. Serna.
Brasileiro Serie A
