1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: the story of the match
7' — Werder Bremen took the lead: 0-1. Niclas Füllkrug scored from the penalty spot. 25' — Werder Bremen extended the lead: 0-2. Niclas Füllkrug scored from the penalty spot. 33' — 1. FSV Mainz 05 pulled one back: 1-2. Anthony Caci scored it. Half time: 1-2.
61' — Werder Bremen extended the lead: 1-3. Ludovit Reis scored it. 64' — 1. FSV Mainz 05 pulled one back: 2-3. Lee Jae-Sung scored it. Werder Bremen won 2-3.
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): 1. FSV Mainz 05 win in 58% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Werder Bremen win 21%. Average goals 3.3; the most likely score is 2-1 (10%); both teams score in 62%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Werder Bremen took the lead in the 7th minute: Niclas Füllkrug from the penalty spot. Werder Bremen extended their lead to 2-0 on 25 minutes thanks to Niclas Füllkrug from the penalty spot. 1. FSV Mainz 05 pulled one back to make it 1-2 on 33 minutes thanks to Anthony Caci, set up by Sheraldo Becker. Werder Bremen led 2-1 at the break.
Werder Bremen extended their lead to 3-1 on 61 minutes thanks to Ludovit Reis, set up by Marco Grüll. 1. FSV Mainz 05 pulled one back to make it 2-3 on 64 minutes thanks to Lee Jae-Sung.
Match statistics
The shot count read 11-15, 9-9 on target. Corners finished 6-7. Dangerous attacks: 61 for 1. FSV Mainz 05, 32 for Werder Bremen.
What it means
1. FSV Mainz 05 slip to 7th (10 points), having started the day 5th. Werder Bremen climb from 8th to 6th on 12 points. 1. FSV Mainz 05 have now scored in 7 consecutive matches. A 3-game wait for victory is over for Werder Bremen.
Bundesliga
