FootballSeason 26/27League Two season simulation
Model estimate Barnet FC — 46% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Promotion | Promotion play-off | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet FC | 26 | 83.8 | 46% | 85% | 13% | 0% |
| Salford City | 31 | 82.6 | 35% | 81% | 17% | 0% |
| Walsall | 22 | 75.6 | 10% | 47% | 38% | 0% |
| Fleetwood Town | 17 | 71 | 2% | 21% | 44% | <1% |
| Grimsby Town | 20 | 70.6 | 3% | 21% | 42% | <1% |
| Exeter City | 19 | 66.7 | 1% | 8% | 33% | <1% |
| Chesterfield FC | 19 | 66 | 1% | 8% | 30% | <1% |
| Crewe Alexandra | 22 | 65.4 | <1% | 6% | 26% | <1% |
| Tranmere Rovers | 19 | 63.9 | <1% | 4% | 22% | <1% |
| Accrington Stanley | 19 | 63.6 | <1% | 4% | 22% | 1% |
| Cheltenham Town | 21 | 64 | <1% | 4% | 22% | 1% |
| Gillingham | 20 | 63.6 | <1% | 4% | 20% | 1% |
| Port Vale | 15 | 62.8 | <1% | 3% | 19% | 1% |
| York City FC | 20 | 62.5 | <1% | 3% | 18% | 1% |
| Swindon Town | 19 | 60.2 | <1% | 1% | 11% | 2% |
| Oldham Athletic | 15 | 59.3 | <1% | 1% | 9% | 3% |
| Newport County | 18 | 56.1 | 0% | <1% | 4% | 6% |
| Bristol Rovers | 16 | 54.2 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 11% |
| Colchester United | 12 | 53.8 | 0% | <1% | 2% | 13% |
| Shrewsbury Town | 18 | 53.5 | 0% | <1% | 2% | 13% |
| Northampton Town | 14 | 52.4 | 0% | <1% | 1% | 15% |
| Rotherham United | 12 | 48.6 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 35% |
| Rochdale | 15 | 47 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 46% |
| Crawley Town | 9 | 46 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 50% |
TitlePromotionPromotion play-offRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet FC | 46 | 26 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salford City | 35 | 30 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Walsall | 10 | 17 | 20 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Fleetwood Town | 2 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Grimsby Town | 3 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Exeter City | 2 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Chesterfield FC | 2 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Crewe Alexandra | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Tranmere Rovers | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Accrington Stanley | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Cheltenham Town | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Gillingham | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |||||
| Port Vale | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| York City FC | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Swindon Town | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Oldham Athletic | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| Newport County | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||||
| Bristol Rovers | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | ||||||
| Colchester United | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 5 | |||||||
| Shrewsbury Town | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 5 | ||||||||
| Northampton Town | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 6 | ||||||||
| Rotherham United | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 18 | |||||||||||
| Rochdale | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 20 | 26 | |||||||||||||
| Crawley Town | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 30 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 388 remaining matches · data version 106ts1. 388 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.