BahrainFootballSeason 26/271st Division season simulation
Model estimate Al Hala SC — 60% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Hala SC | 10 | 45.7 | 60% |
| Al Ittihad Bahrain | 6 | 39.5 | 12% |
| Bahrain SC | 9 | 39 | 11% |
| Al Shabab Manama | 8 | 37.6 | 7% |
| Al Budaiya | 6 | 37.4 | 6% |
| Bouri Cultural SC | 7 | 36.4 | 4% |
| Tadamun Buri | 9 | 28.9 | <1% |
| Busaiteen | 4 | 28.5 | <1% |
| Um Alhassam | 6 | 26.7 | <1% |
| Isa Town | 3 | 25.4 | <1% |
| Etehad Al Reef | 0 | 13.1 | 0% |
| Qalali Club | 1 | 9.1 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Hala SC | 60 | 20 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||||
| Al Ittihad Bahrain | 12 | 21 | 20 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| Bahrain SC | 11 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Al Shabab Manama | 7 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||
| Al Budaiya | 6 | 13 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||
| Bouri Cultural SC | 4 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 11 | 5 | 3 | |||
| Tadamun Buri | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 22 | 19 | 15 | ||||
| Busaiteen | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 22 | 20 | 16 | 1 | |||
| Um Alhassam | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 20 | 25 | 25 | 2 | ||||
| Isa Town | 2 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 25 | 35 | 3 | |||||
| Etehad Al Reef | 1 | 6 | 69 | 24 | ||||||||
| Qalali Club | 23 | 76 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 108 remaining matches · data version 1fn1c0. 105 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.