VfL Bochum vs 1. FSV Mainz 05: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. Half time: 0-0, with 1. FSV Mainz 05 applying more of the pressure.
46' — VfL Bochum took the lead: 1-0. Christian Rasmussen scored it. 75' — VfL Bochum extended the lead: 2-0. Philipp Hofmann scored it. VfL Bochum won 2-0.
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
VfL Bochum1. FSV Mainz 05
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min061
Last 15 min027
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2 (no dangerous-attack data for this match).
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): VfL Bochum win in 21% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and 1. FSV Mainz 05 win 58%. Average goals 3.2; the most likely score is 1-1 (10%); both teams score in 59%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Half-time: 0-0 between VfL Bochum and 1. FSV Mainz 05.
VfL Bochum took the lead in the 46th minute: Christian Rasmussen. VfL Bochum extended their lead to 2-0 in the 75th minute: Philipp Hofmann.
Match statistics
VfL Bochum won 5 corners, 1. FSV Mainz 05 6.
What it means
VfL Bochum end a run of 3 matches without a win. 1. FSV Mainz 05's run of 7 matches with a goal comes to an end. It is VfL Bochum's first win against 1. FSV Mainz 05 since 2022.
Next fixtures
VfL Bochum visit Energie Cottbus next, on 30 October. Next up for 1. FSV Mainz 05: away at SV Elversberg on Friday 30 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
DFB Pokal
