SV Elversberg vs Darmstadt 98: the story of the match
SV Elversberg started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 7' — Darmstadt 98 took the lead: 0-1. Lars Kehl scored it. Half time: 0-1, with SV Elversberg applying more of the pressure.
56' — Darmstadt 98 extended the lead: 0-2. Milan Smit scored it. Darmstadt 98 won 0-2.
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
SV ElversbergDarmstadt 98
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min9112
Last 15 min8663
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): SV Elversberg win in 77% of the simulated matches, 13% end level and Darmstadt 98 win 10%. Average goals 4.5; the most likely score is 3-1 (8%); both teams score in 68%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
The early pressure came from SV Elversberg, who controlled the opening 15 minutes. Darmstadt 98 took the lead on 7 minutes thanks to Lars Kehl. Darmstadt 98 had a goal ruled out in the 13th minute. The officials disallowed a Darmstadt 98 goal on 30 minutes. It was SV Elversberg 0-1 Darmstadt 98 at half-time; SV Elversberg had the better of the pressure.
Milan Smit made it 2-0 for Darmstadt 98 after 56 minutes.
The statistics
SV Elversberg had 13 shots (9 on target) to Darmstadt 98's 3 (2). SV Elversberg won 18 corners, Darmstadt 98 2. 7 saves came from the Darmstadt 98 goalkeeper. SV Elversberg produced 320 dangerous attacks to Darmstadt 98's 47.
What it means
It is Darmstadt 98's first win against SV Elversberg since 2013.
Coming up
SV Elversberg's next match is at home against 1. FSV Mainz 05 on 30 October. Darmstadt 98 host 1.FC Magdeburg next, on 31 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
DFB Pokal
