UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar: the story of the match
7' — FBC Melgar took the lead: 0-1. Bernardo Cuesta scored it. Half time: 0-1.
68' — FBC Melgar extended the lead: 0-2. Nicolás Quagliata scored it. 87' — UTC Cajamarca pulled one back: 1-2. Luis Garro scored it. It came in the closing minutes. FBC Melgar won 1-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
UTC CajamarcaDrawFBC Melgar
Pre-match model estimate: UTC Cajamarca 15%, draw 20%, FBC Melgar 65%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): UTC Cajamarca win in 15% of the simulated matches, 20% end level and FBC Melgar win 65%. Average goals 3.0; the most likely score is 0-2 (10%); both teams score in 53%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
FBC Melgar took the lead on 7 minutes thanks to Bernardo Cuesta. Half-time: 0-1, FBC Melgar in front.
FBC Melgar extended their lead to 2-0 on 68 minutes thanks to Nicolás Quagliata. Luis Garro reduced the deficit for UTC Cajamarca to 1-2 after 87 minutes.
The statistics
On target it was 7-3, from 14 and 3 attempts respectively. UTC Cajamarca won 4 corners, FBC Melgar 2. 7 saves came from the FBC Melgar goalkeeper. UTC Cajamarca produced 238 dangerous attacks to FBC Melgar's 139.
The bigger picture
UTC Cajamarca stay 18th on -3 points. FBC Melgar remain 5th, now with 25 points. It is now 9 straight defeats for UTC Cajamarca. FBC Melgar extend their unbeaten run to 6 matches.
Coming up
UTC Cajamarca's next match is away to FC Cajamarca on 28 October. FBC Melgar host CD Comerciantes Unidos next, on 30 October in the Primera Division, Clausura.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Primera Division, Clausura
