Atletico Grau vs ADT Tarma: the story of the match
26' — Atletico Grau took the lead: 1-0. Patricio Álvarez scored from the penalty spot. 27' — Christian Vásquez of Atletico Grau was sent off. Half time: 1-0.
61' — ADT Tarma equalised: 1-1. Horacio Benincasa scored it. 88' — Jonatan Bauman of ADT Tarma was sent off. The match ended 1-1.
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Atletico Grau win in 53% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and ADT Tarma win 21%. Average goals 2.5; the most likely score is 1-0 (13%); both teams score in 48%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
VAR awarded Atletico Grau a penalty in the 23rd minute. Just 3 minutes later (26') Atletico Grau took the lead, Patricio Álvarez from the penalty spot on target. Atletico Grau had a player sent off on 27 minutes: Christian Vásquez. Atletico Grau led 1-0 at the break.
ADT Tarma drew level at 1-1 on 61 minutes thanks to Horacio Benincasa. VAR checked and confirmed the ADT Tarma goal on 62 minutes. ADT Tarma had a goal ruled out in the 87th minute after a VAR review. ADT Tarma were a man down from the 88th minute, when Jonatan Bauman was sent off.
The statistics
Atletico Grau won 3 corners, ADT Tarma 4. ADT Tarma produced 71 dangerous attacks to Atletico Grau's 32.
What the result means
Atletico Grau stay 11th on 18 points. ADT Tarma remain 17th, now with 7 points. Atletico Grau have now gone 4 matches without a win.
Next fixtures
Next up for Atletico Grau: away at Cienciano del Cusco on Thursday 29 October. ADT Tarma's next match is at home against CD Moquegua on 28 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Primera Division, Clausura
