9' — Metz took the lead: 0-1. Pape Fall scored it. Half time: 0-1.
61' — Jordan Morel of USL Dunkerque was sent off. 65' — USL Dunkerque equalised: 1-1. Opa Sanganté scored it. The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
USL DunkerqueDrawMetz
Pre-match model estimate: USL Dunkerque 32%, draw 24%, Metz 44%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): USL Dunkerque win in 32% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Metz win 44%. Average goals 3.1; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 61%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Metz took the lead on 9 minutes thanks to Pape Fall. Half-time: 0-1, Metz in front.
Jordan Morel saw a second yellow and then red in the 61st minute, leaving USL Dunkerque short-handed. USL Dunkerque drew level at 1-1 on 65 minutes thanks to Opa Sanganté.
The statistics
The shot count read 6-14, 4-10 on target. Corners finished 2-4.
What the result means
Metz have now scored in 4 consecutive matches. Across 5 meetings in our records: 4 wins for Metz and 1 draw.
Coming up
USL Dunkerque host En Avant Guingamp next, on 6 November in Ligue 2. Next up for Metz: away at Montpellier on Friday 6 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Ligue 2
